A Biotech Bash - Recs and Wrecks Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : A Biotech Bash - Recs and Wrecks

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (119)	9/9/1997 4:34:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	of 171

Rick, I think LGND is ready to soar. I've now heard two independent rumors that its JNJ for LGND's diabetes deal which is coupled to a JNJ buyout of AGN. Here's why: After reading about the rumored JNJ buyout of AGN, I'm now switching bets to JNJ. A JNJ diabetes deal, coupled with an AGN buyout would make a good deal of sense. LGND doesn't want to get a huge up front payment and then spend a significant portion of it buying back ALRI. They also don't want to use stock because they know that LGND's price will go markedly higher soon. Therefore if JNJ buys AGN and they can get 1/2 of ALRI for a mere $9 million and LGND doesn't have to worry about AGN's share, then the deal is much cleaner (AGN's share gets folded into JNJ's share). Thus, JNJ can gobble up competition in skin and eye care and still get in on the ground floor of rexinoid treatment for type II diabetes, a HUGE market. AGN has been looking for a buyer for awhile, and a JNJ buyout would allow rapid movement on diabetes as well as the huge arsenal of retinoids in the ALRI stable (which is grossly underfunded because AGN just isn't big enough).

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