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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: whitepine who wrote (45727)	7/19/2005 11:51:05 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 206338

side from the assumption that everything in the patch can go to the moon, how does one make rational projections of upward price targets, especially since the street's bias against energy is glacial in its rate of change? i think people are looking at the projections for something like 86.5mmbpd demand in Q4, versus supply of 84mmbpd, a la Boone Pickens, who made an appearance in the most recent issue of Grant's. demand destruction of this magnitude leads to talk of superspikes and sanguine acceptance of higher inventories. there was actually some interesting discussion of that in the superspike article which marked the springtime intermediate top. the fly in the ointment as i see it is an exogenous demand shock such as could be caused by a flu pandemic. this could absolutely crush demand and the stocks as well. for those looking for in-depth discussion of this issue by reputable sources, there's a good set of articles on this subject in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. actual demand in Q1-Q2/06 could be 86mmbpd or 76mmbpd, depending on what an invisible bug does. so, future near-term price is unpredictable imo.

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