I wouldn't read much into those numbers. Permits are issued for a lot more than just new houses, and I don't believe the feds are smart enough to figure out how many are for houses and how many are for porches, decks, garages, additions, etc. Same goes for starts and completions. With the craze in private home remodelling, everyone and their brother is getting permits. The only ones who aren't are the ones too dumb to know the inspectors can make them tear down their work for not having one.
I love this big house mania. Cities and counties are reaping a tremendous windfall from all the increased property taxes. They are building roads, parks, and trails like mad around here. The people buying those oversized homes are paying for it all, and they will be paying every year. It sure is going to be interesting as the baby boomers retire to a dramatically reduced income and want to downsize their housing. Who will buy all the monoliths, especially if interest rates are significantly higher and energy costs mean it takes $200/month to heat or cool it.
Gasoline costs could be interesting as world oil supplies are in decline and the trends in this country are towards spreading out of the cities and driving gas guzzlers. In ten years, when gas costs $8/gallon or more, location of the house relative to work, shopping, and entertainment could become extremely important |
