Some anecdotal evidence from Los Angeles.
At the local bowling alley, there is a bartender who works my league night. She is young (maybe 23-25) and not very bright (slow to fetch drinks, make change, doesn't recognize regulars). Last time I was in there, I heard her talking to an older patron about how house prices should start dropping soon "You know, like they did in the 90's." So the older patron asked if the typical $800,000 house would cost $500,00 soon. No, she said, maybe $750,000, but prices would continue declining for about 5 years.
A relative of mind has a husband who is a general contractor. These people are very bad with money, and constantly have to receive help from their parents, even though they are pushing 40 and have 4 kids. They rent an apartment, but last year they started making noise about buying a house. IMO, this was due to talk from her sister-in-law, who cashed out of the CA market, and bought a house for cash in TX. Just last week, however, the search was called off. The husband has concluded that this is the top of the market, and they are better off waiting. I don't think he has made the connection between that conclusion, and what will happen to his business and employment prospects.
These opinions are atypical of the normally bullish opinions I hear, and they are from people with a vested interest in house price declines. However, opinions of this sort are new from this class of person. In the last few years, they were much more likely to express a fatalism that they would never be able to afford a house. |
