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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 689.100.0%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (42556)7/20/2005 9:37:53 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) of 69990
 
07:39 INTC Intel: Color on capex (28.71 )

-Update- Several firms are commenting on Intel's capex increase from a midpoint of $5.6B to a new midpoint of $5.9B which is now up 54%YoY... Wachovia notes that Intel has spent 54% of its revised capex budget in 1H05. Assuming no further changes to capex in 2005 and an even capex spend spread across both 3Q05 and 4Q05, it would imply that Intel's 3Q05 capex could be down 2% q/q. Firm expects AMAT to have greater exposure to Intel spending y/y. Firm's channel checks suggest that some of Applied Materials' tool of record at Intel include Physical Vapor Deposition (about $100M/yr), Polishing ($120M/yr), Front End ($125M/yr) and High Density Plasma dielectric deposition ($80-100M/yr)... CSFB says their bottom-up capex model (adjusted for Intel, 13.7% of worldwide capex) now points to 2005 capex declining 4.0% y/y to $43.1 bln, vs a prior decline of 4.7% y/y. Companies best leveraged to INTC capex include AMAT, NVLS, VSEA, and Advantest, with LRCX and ACLS being least leveraged. After Intel, they continue to believe there is risk to SCE revenues in the back half of the year - Intel capex is poised to decline 14% H/H, and as other chip companies report in the coming weeks the firm believes overall semi capex will remain on track to decline 15-20% H/H vs flat consensus SCE revenues estimates in 2H05.
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