<An analyst with some Middle East think tank was just quoted on Fox News as saying that Osama bin Laden is still a hero to the majority of Saudi Arabians. He went on to say that if that country were to have totally open, free elections, with the Saud royal family standing aside, that bin Laden would be elected in a heartbeat.>
Here excerpts from two articles of the Council on Foreign Relations:
Saudi Arabia: In al Qaeda's Sights
Updated: November 11, 2003
cfr.org
How much support does al Qaeda have in Saudi Arabia?
No one knows. But many experts worry that a large group of young, disaffected Saudis is ripe for recruitment. According to the United Nations, 39 percent of the population is under the age of 15. Economic prospects are bleak. In 1980, Saudi gross domestic product was $15,500 per capita, $2,500 more than the comparable U.S. figure. Now, it's closer to $7,500, almost $25,000 less than the U.S. amount. Job creation has not kept pace with the growing population, and Saudi Arabia's education system produces many graduates steeped in conservative Islam and ill-equipped to work in a modern, globalized economy. The result: an undercurrent of discontent that al Qaeda feeds upon, Ranstorp says.
Not all experts concur. "There is a large number of young and unemployed who are put off by the fact that they have no say in their government whatsoever, but that still does not make them followers or supporters of this sort of violence," says Richard Murphy, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia and the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for the Middle East at the Council on Foreign Relations. He says the latest attacks on Arabs may have diminished support for al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia: "It may well be that these two bombings have cost al Qaeda more than they've gained. It's very unsettling to the average Saudi."
Saudi Expert Gause Says U.S.-Saudi Ties, Once Close, Now Limited to Oil and Anti-Terrorism
Interview with F. Gregory Gause III on June 17, 2004
cfr.org
Do the jihadists have much popular support, as far as you can tell?
If the question is, "Do the jihadists have enough popular support to take over the government?" I'd have to say no. I don't see them as able to mobilize large crowds into the street against the regime. But if the question is, "Do some of the things that the jihadists say have support?" I'd have to say yes. I'm not sure everyone would go for the idea of kicking out all the Westerners, or even the non-Muslims. There are many in that category who do menial labor and things like that. I think that wouldn't get much support. But the idea of kicking out the Americans has support. The idea of standing up for what people in Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Arab world see as an American policy that is anti-Muslim and anti-Arab does get a fair amount of support.
But on taking power, there are too many people in Saudi Arabia who have it good or good enough that I don't think they would support the people who would overthrow the whole economic system in Saudi Arabia. |
