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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Umunhum who wrote (36407)7/21/2005 7:21:57 AM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
I don't see his scenario unfolding either but he obviously has some good points that have been rehashed by the world is coming to an end crowd for ages. Seems they all fail to grasp the ability of the US to continue to grow and expand in a way not available to Japan or Europe. Tons of excess land for development, high population growth and the most sophisticated capital markets and marketing minds on the planet. It seems pretty obvious a major dollar devaluation is in the cards and much higher interest rates over time as the imbalances of 80% or so of worldwide savings to fund US deficits can't continue without some major shakeout. So the coastal bubble markets take a dive and the loss of market cap could be $3 trillion dollars over the next 5-7 years. We've been through that and much worse with the S&L collapse, 70% drop in commercial RE and major drop in residential RE in not only coastal bubble markets but the whole oil patch which this time will be spared. As long as our banking system and stock market stay sound we will survive. Maybe Mish, besides being incapable of addressing my other points should also answer why even with the bursting of the housing bubbles in both Australia and the UK their stock markets are at all time highs if we are entering a housing bust lead deflation/depression/K-Wave world coming to an end scenario?
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