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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (36565)7/22/2005 3:46:35 AM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Hi Mish: Lets also make a list of things you might be overlooking:

1. Tax revenue in the US will plummet if our economy weakens, adding to our ballooning government deficits.
2. Americans, not used to saving and having been recently reduced in income and assets will not be able to fund the deficits of the US government.
3. We will be MORE reliant on foreign capital after the housing meltdown, not less.
4. The dollar, the wonder currency that has defied gravity for so long, will search all over the world for somebody who does not view it as a worthless currency with no future, while the Fed goes into overdrive trying to keep the economy "afloat" and adding to the belief that the dollar is something to be avoided rather than sought after as US monetary inflation soars.
5. In time, baby boomers will show the pension system for what it is: bankrupt.
6. Falling US demand will not necessarily crash the global economy as others who rise to acquire a new level of status undreamed of in the 20th century -- a world where other people are increasingly prosperous and doing better every year while we discover the "joys" of poverty and watch our situation grow worse every year.

Everything you write puts the USA at the center of the universe -- it ain't necessarily so. We lived well on the "kindness of strangers" and we are likely nearing the point where the bill for that kindness will come due -- and the Chinese will want us to shone their shoes for a couple of generations, assuming they will lend us the money for the shoe polish and a cloth.
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