gaviero - Sliderisms, Straw Men & Zeitgeist ?
...was it something I said ?
Now I think I know what a "Sliderism" is...
-ie: anything that is not in lock-step with the Peak Oil Permabullian version of zeitgeist.
Straw Man ? The Natural Laws of Economics and Free Markets - such as incremental substitution, or Buyers buying more at low prices & less at high prices and Producers producing less at low prices and more at high prices ? - is that a "straw man" ? Or, Bad Economic Marco trumping good oilpatch micro....which has rolled over virtually all prior Oil Cycles... is that a straw man arguement as well ?
And "zeitgeist" ?!?!?!
Zeitgeist.... isn't that something like poltergeist ? - something we should be afraid of ?... very, very afraid ?
If you want zeitgeist... go to Investor's Business Daily - you'll find all the stinkin' zeitgeist you'll ever need.
It was too much damn zeitgeist that created the Internet & Tech Nasdaq Bubble !
Zeitgeist - scheistgeist...
Good Traders in Cyclical Sectors don't need no stinkin' "zeitgeist"...they need to be "Zetetic".
- from Modern Latin, "zeteticus"
- from Greek, "zeteikos" based on the verb "zeiten" meaning - to seek.
In the History of Philosophy (1660), "Zetetic Philosophy" reflected the - continual enquiry after truth.
In William Thomson's - The Outline of Thought (1853), the Zetetics - were seekers, or investigators and inquirers of truth.
The "Pyrrohinists" dating back to 300 B.C. - were also called Zetetics, but were actually of a more skeptical school of thought, seemingly doubting everything...(not a bad philosophical bent to have during New Paradigm's MeThinks).
In Mathematical & Scientific terms "zetetics" - was the method used for finding the value of unknown quantities by direct search, in investigation of, or in the solution of problems.
- both schools of thought certainly supportive of the contrarianism that is often a prerequisite to being successful in both the timely entry’s and exits within the volatile Cycles in the Commodity Sectors of the market.
...zeitgeist is for the Momenteum/Trend IBD Traders...and if that floats your boat... so be it.
In my thinking, a Trading Philosophy based on "Pyrrohinistic Zeteticism" better serves the Oilpatch and the Gold & Natural Rescource Sector Trader, than does "zeitgeist," due to the indigenous volatility & complex Economic and Geopolitical catalysts found within these sectors.
And as far as [ "...leaving a lot on the dance floor" , or "not playing the oil market very astutely" ]... maybe we ought to rewind the zeitgeist tape a bit here gavi'
The most opportune time to have been long the Oilpatch was from late 1998 to the fall (Oct) of 2000.
- that period gave us OSX 45 during Q3 & Q4 of 2000 and a rally to OSX 145 in October of 2000 - resulting in a Sector "Triple" and an index run of 100 points.
...been there - done that.
* It should be noted, that the OSX saw the 145 level in late 1997, late 1998 and again in the spring of 2001...in reality (not a state most Permabulls are often found) the OSX is only up 14 points, or 10% from those earlier highs over the last 4 to 8 years - which hasn't even kept up with inflation !?!?! - so what did anyone miss ?
Now...where our apparent disagreement over your version of "zeitgeist" and my preference for "zeteticism" comes into play, is during that period in late 2000 - when I pounded the table for a Portfolio Weighted Leap from "Black Gold's" Cyclical Top - to "Yellow Gold's" Cyclical bottom.
I received the same reaction from the Oil Permabulls then, as I do now...
For the record, from that point - the OSX immediately collapsed, falling to a low of OSX 58 over the next year.
Simultaneous to that - the HUI Gold Index Stocks went from what proved to be it's secular bottom of HUI 35 to it's ultimate high of HUI 258.
That resulted in the HUI Goldstock Index multiplying 7 - fold from it's lows.
Comparing the returns of zeitgeist to zeteticism and Black to Yellow Gold over this timeframe, looks something like this:
finance.yahoo.com
And not to stomp zeitgeist into the dirt as a valid trading philosophy...but, there was also the infamous OSX "JUNE SWOON" of 2001 that errupted the old Strictly Drilling Thread here on SI in that rather memorable Battle between Permabulls in zeitgeist and my zetetic call to go Short.
...the Short's won.
- then there was that other "New Paradigm....this time it's different" Oilpatch Permabull battle during the Natural Gas Mania that brought the Blackouts in California during the peak of Enron's Energy Derivative Shenanigans {of course we know, Energy Markets are never Manipulated !)... I said "Short it"... the Bulls were blinded by greed and zeitgeist....and once again:
...the Short's won.
- this spring, the Oilpatch had a parabolic run from Jan to March and I once again suggested going "Short" (or, taking profits... selling, is selling (vbg) and once again:
...the Short's won.
Now as far as "leaving a lot on the dance floor" here:
- as covered in the BBR, no - I am not Portfolio weighted to the Oilpatch either long, or short. Moderate trades in light of the declining Risk:Reward Metric's as I see them...but, levered in both directions via a floating options straddle...as I see the trade on "Volatility" itself, being THE Trade... but, that's already been debated elsewhere.
Since that nicely profitable Short of the Oilpatch Run:
Goldbugs have just had a significant pullback & trading opportunity that has given us a 40 Point HUI Index Rally.
The Oilpatch has just rallied to a similar degree from the pullback to OSX 120's to the present high's pushing 160.
- 40 points each.
I just sold my small, but levered position in straddled "calls" in the OSX plays... I still hold my full portfolio weighted Long position in the Gold plays...as well as a few LEAP Calls in Oil and am waiting to re-institute the Short Side of the Straddle into any significant extension of this rally, or into downward momenteum should Crude Oil retrace and the sectors shareprices rollover....for now, I am giving the Permabulls enough rope to hang themselves once again...
Neither Gold, nor Oil have the Risk:Reward Metric's that they possessed in earlier zeitgeist times...
It's like Auto Racing... you must learn to put the pedal to the metal and accelerate like hell in the straight-aways, but also to ease off of the gas pedal and judiciously use the brake pedal in the curves, or in heavy traffic.
Zeitgeist and BullMarkets are like the "Straightaways"...virtually anyone can mash down the gas pedal and go fast...
But, ultimately Races are always won by how one navigates the curves and heavy, unfriendly traffic.
Good Luck Gaviero...just watch out for the Wall on those high-banked turns.
You race your race.... I'll race mine.
You dance your dance....I'll dance mine.
You take zeitgeist.... I'll take Zetetic's.
Pyrrohinisticaly yours,
Slider` |
