>> Perhaps, they understand the physics, but making one is an entirely different ball game.
This is the mistake that so many make and is the illusion behind current NPT regime. Building nuclear bombs is a 60 year old technology. Anyone who puts his mind to it, even a private group, can do it, let alone governments. May be it will not match the latest and greatest US nukes or even 10, 20, or 30 year old nuke. But surely they can match the 60 year old nukes dropped on Japan. Is that any less frightening?
The current NPT program is founded on the misguided belief that it is possible to indefinitely postpone proliferation of nuclear weapons technology know-how. If in fact it was possible to prevent proliferation of advance weapons, no colony would ever have regained its freedom. More recently an understanding is emerging that anyone, even a bunch of riff-raff in the form AQ, can produce a nuclear weapon given the material. So the focus is shifting to indefinitely postponing access to nuclear material. This too is a futile dream.
At best, and I am being very optimistic, there is a 10-30 year window before every country is neighbouring another nuclear power and after that the whole thing will tip over. If you look at the map of the world as I described it, you'll see this has already happened to a good extent. In other words, in a not too distant future, either Turkey or Iran will have nukes. Ditto for one of Syria, Saudi, and/or Egypt . Same for Morocco or Spain. After that look for some micro-nukes, of the type Bush is making, to be found somewhere in Africa and perhaps used by some bloodthirsty thug in an internal conflict. And at that time we will be living in horror for a long time, unless of course we manage to get ourselves extinct.
NPT should not be based on the illusion that other can't/shouldn't/won't have nuclear weapons. It should promote diplomacy on the basis that everyone has a nuke at home. The difficult negotiations that will have to be made in such a world (coming to you in a near future) are better accomplished now before the fact than at the time.
True courage is not lack of fear, but the resolve to do the right thing no matter how painful the change may be. I have come to conclude that most who promote war, hegemony, or violence are simply hiding their cowardice to deal with what changes are required for peace under a veneer or machismo or patriotism.
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