Care to take a shot at the NAR numbers? Sales appear to be running very high, but so do inventories, so something is going to break. Keep in mind that the inventory number is derived by dividing it into the sales number (which is running high). Net net this gives the appearance of "an active market" in terms of both buyers and sellers? I wonder about the buyers stats though, doesn't quite jive (*)?
The non-condo single-family home inventory number (which is the historical benchmark ... NAR only added condos several months ago) hit 2.32 million units in June. That is the highest going back all the way to August 1990 ... which was a recession period, if memory serves me correctly. On a months supply basis, SFH inventory was 4.4 months, the highest since last August. Throw condo figures into the mix, and it looks like inventory is at a record high (absolute basis) at 2.65 million.That's a 11.6% YOY spike in housing INVENTORY vs. only a 4.4% YOY rise in sales.
(*)
Bay area:
A total of 13,014 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was up 2.5 percent from 11,308 for May, and down 7.7 percent from 14,104 for June last year , according to DataQuick Information Systems.
So.Calf:
A total of 35,454 new and resale homes were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in June. That was up 14.8 percent from 30,886 in May, and up 2.1 percent from 34,731 for June last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems. |
