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Politics : The Citizens Manifesto
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To: Road Walker who wrote (315)7/25/2005 5:08:38 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 492
 
Not vehicle efficiency. It's been flat to declining since I think the mid-80's.

I was talking about economic efficiency (real dollars of GDP per barrel of oil), not fuel economy. I use the term fuel economy deliberately. Cars have gotten more fuel efficient (power generated per gallon of oil), even while they have used the same or more fuel (fuel economy).

I might give you that except for all the blatant incentives that benefit the oil industry and the consumption status quo.

If the incentives are a problem the best thing to do is to go after the incentives. I'm against them myself even if they are more for exploration and production than use (and thus they help reduce oil imports if perhaps not by a huge amount).

The current incentives contribute to more oil being produced (and thus more oil being used, because the larger supply helps keep costs from rising as much) but the effect is only at the margin. They are not the primary determinant of the price and usage patterns of oil. They are not enough to stop the long run changes as oil becomes more scarce (at least relative to demand, and eventually in absolute terms) and expensive.

Even today's prices are probably enough of an incentive to cut oil use (or reduce the growth in oil use in the places where it is growing fastest). Similar prices (in real terms, much lower in nominal terms) in the past have resulted in slower usage growth or even reduced oil use. But there is a lag before prices can stimulate production, and also a lag before people can change things to use less oil (invest in new more efficient machinery, buy smaller cars, or change their commuting patterns, ect.) There would be a similar lag if your plan was implemented.

Tim
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