After determining Menezes wasn't one of the four bombers who had been photographed, they followed him because they thought he might lead them to the bombers -- based on his appearance, his demeanor, and his emergence from the address under surveillance. (Supposedly, they had evidence that one of the bombers had stayed at that address.)
After deciding he wasn't one of The Four, and until he started to approach the train station, I think it hadn't occurred to the cops that he might be a bomber. Then, suddenly, the three undercover cops get an order from Scotland Yard that they are not to allow the poor guy to get to the platform.
I think the bosses at The Yard failed to anticipate that Menezes might head for a Tube station. Once it became clear where he was heading, it became an "oh shit" moment. His "colouring," his demeanor, his address, his coat, his course toward the train station -- "Oh shit, this guy isn't leading us to the bombers, he IS a bomber!"
I've no doubt that Scotland Yard -- and police agencies all over the world -- are busily updating their surveillance procedures accordingly.
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