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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Mike Johnston who wrote (36242)7/26/2005 1:25:55 AM
From: John VosillaRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
"The bottom line IMO , there is a national housing bubble, because it exists everywhere it can exist and involves majority of the population and also drives the economic activity of this country ( as opposed to the economy driving housing which should be the case in a normal market)"

I think it is safe to say areas driven by both construction and appreciation (Las Vegas, Phoenix, inland empire LA and much of Florida) have done very well and very much drive the local economy. But can housing be considered the driver in a place like Boston with little new construction or Atlanta with little appreciation but tons of new construction? You mentioned a lot of areas that are part of the oil patch that had their own bubble and bust in the mid 80's that are not participating this time at least on the appreciation side so to say it is not possible there is incorrect. Land is only a part of total value and buildable land is a moving target that can vary based on changes in zoning, environmental and government policies/planning. Also many of the most bubbily of markets such as Phoenix, Vegas and Orlando have a ton of land in all directions just like Atlanta or Houston which have not benefited as much from the cashing in their chips spillover from overpriced land constrained major markets of great wealth like NYC and LA or the wealthy overseas crowd playing on the weak dollar. IMHO 30-40% crashes in certain residential housing markets are minor compared to a major collapse in construction on a nationwide basis or the 60-70% crash in commercial RE nationwide in the early 1990's..
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