"The Kurds are Sunni."
Many are, many aren't (some are Christians, some Shi'a, etc.)
It's not ALL a religious conflict... there are many other threads woven into the situation: ethnic conflicts, nationalistic aspirations, struggle for power over the oil fields, etc. After all --- the Kurds DO REPRESENT the largest irredentist movement in the world, the largest single ethnic/national group without a country.
Likely there will be three-sided joustling over territory (The Kurds have already been kicking Arabs that Saddam settled in 'their' territories out --- forcefully --- ever since they took control. NOT the Shi'a dominated central government, they have done little or nothing but stall on the issue, so the Kurds have been taking matters into their own hands.
Just this past week the Kurds presented a new map to the Parliment that extended the "Kurdish area" to 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAGHDAD!!!!! LOL!
I expect ALL sides to involve themselves in the struggle & proxy war... but, IMO, the Kurds' biggest threat is our NATO ally Turkey, which has threatened repeatedly to invade Kurdish territory if the Kurds ever declare an independent nation.
(Largely for that reason --- even though many Kurds *really do* want an independent 'Kurdistan', incorporating large swaths of land from Turkey, Syria, etc. --- I expect the Kurds to stick fairly close to the US for protection from Turkey... and to hold off on 'officially' declaring their own nation for a while. Although they will take near total control over their own affairs, oil revenue, etc. in all but name. They will also try to stay as much as possible out of the Saudi/Iranian conflict, tending to their own affairs.)
The situation (as far as Iraq is concerned) will be resolved with a Sunni statelet allied with the Saudis & or Syria, a Shi'a 'Iraq' (probably half the land mass) allied with Iran, and a semi-independent 'Kurdistan'. |
