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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (36975)7/26/2005 12:17:12 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Tue Jul 26 2005 11:54
trotsky (Brazilian real) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the real carry trade has hit a major road bump in recent days...this is a potential warning shot regarding the entire emerging market 'hot money' flows that have marked the 'reflation' period since mid '02.

Date: Tue Jul 26 2005 11:10
trotsky (Guardian article on Niger) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i've noticed this little inaccuracy:

"Unlike countries such as Nigeria that uses its massive oil revenues to import food, Niger's economy of only $9bn ( £5.15bn ) depends on its main export, uranium, whose value has decreased dramatically since the nuclear arms race in the 1980s."

uranium prices are in fact at a multi-decade high. the question is now, how believable are the other statistics offered in the article? it seems astonishing that a country with a population of only 11 million which has such a valuable export business should suffer such a big crisis. a comparable African country would be Botswana - also largely a desert, with a small population and a valuable export business ( diamonds in this case ) . there's never been a food or economic crisis in Botswana. now, i've been to Botswana, and the one thing that makes this country different from most of sub-Saharan Africa is the lack of corruption. apparently civil servants are well paid and don't feel the need to take bribes. my guess is that Niger conforms more to the usual African practices, which would help to explain why it is so crisis prone.
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