The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (36238)	7/26/2005 1:56:43 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) of 306849

I have actually found common sense and intuition to be the best guide along with informal conversations with dispassionate, knowledgeable local observers. In fact I have had the opportunity to talk with several local real estate agents in a non-business setting (ie they are not trying to sell me anything). If they seem reasonable and intelligent, I generally try to pump them for their current observations; over the years, they have been more on the mark than many of the posters here. I have found the academic geniuses using <real due diligence and knowledge> to have been so far completely useless. I do believe that local factors are equally important as gross macroeconomic winds. I think the influence of foreign money in select markets has been underappreciated. It does make intuitive sense here to me that many real estate markets have become over-extended ie they represent tired bulls. How much they will correct or rest and for how long and for how much is totally up in the air IMO. I personally underweight the opinions of academic type gurus who have been completely wrong about everything for many years-particularly when they become hysterical. I somehow feel sure that the grand Miami tradition of Condo overbuilding followed by a deep slump in prices will continue. If I am lucky, I hope to pick up a nice penthouse with an ocean view at bargain prices. I doubt single family homes on prime lots in Coral Gables will fall nearly as much in value-if they fall at all (ditto for Georgetown). Maybe someday I will really be lucky and find a bargain in San Diego <g> Message 21542766 Incidentally I prefer the term real estate bull to bubble. When one says bubble, you are using a word with extreme emotional connotations- I believe the word itself can cloud one's judgement. I really don't think that a house selling for $600,000 when it should really be, say, $400,000 compares to a tulip selling for $600,000 when it really should be worth about $5. BWTHDIK

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