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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1281)7/27/2005 3:04:30 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) of 24214
 
End of Oil (750K PDF)

Dr Bob Lloyd, Physics Department, Otago University, New Zealand

...So what is the problem? The problem is that the world economic picture, painted by economists on a background of free trade and globalisation, has failed to take into account the physical reality of energy in general and fossil fuel resources in particular; especially in terms of the state of the world’s crude oil supplies. An examination of oil supplies will lead us to the conclusion that we have essentially been led up the garden path by a system of unrestricted marketing and growth dominated economics.

That there has been very little serious outcry or realisation of the situation, at least from the developed world, might be attributed to the fact that in general we are comfortable and have never had it so good. And that scientists have abdicated the operation of the global human situation to economists, due to the supposedly self evident success of this approach and the fact that contrary environmentalist meddling could be dismissed in the light of their obvious failures in the past.
(July 2005)
Long (18-page) but readable essay which summarizes the different techniques for predicting oil supplies and production.

Suggested by Graeme on a peakoil forum. He writes:
To summarise, [author Bob Lloyd] talks about oil depletion and oil reserves estimation. He states at the end that we have from zero to ten years to make the transition to sustainable energy and put in place energy conservation. He quotes Hubbert's 1949 paper stating that if we do not move to renewable energy and conservation, world population would crash. But if we did, then our future would be sustainable (thousands of years).
Author Bob Lloyd has a PhD in physics and is director of the Energy Studies Program at Otago University, New Zealand. -BA
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