[The situation (as far as Iraq is concerned) will be resolved with a Sunni statelet allied with the Saudis & or Syria, a Shi'a 'Iraq' (probably half the land mass) allied with Iran, and a semi-independent 'Kurdistan']
"Ahhh Are you so sure?"
I believe that is the likeliest outcome.
"First of all, why do you assume that a Iraqi Sunni statelet would be allied with Syria?"
I said "and/or". An 'affiliation' (perhaps even an eventual merger of their areas) with Saudi Arabia is the most likely result. The vast majority of the cash funding for the revolt is coming from Saudi Arabia... but they will need to maintain relations with Syria also to achieve their goals. Iran and Saudi Arabia (not withstanding the cash also flowing from the other Sunni-ruled Gulf States) will hold the whip-hand when it comes to agreeing on the final dividing lines, since they control much of the funding for the fighting.
"As far as Iran goes, Iranians are more closely related to Kurds than Arabs"
Yep... and if the Kurds give up any claim to Kurdish occupied areas of Iran they may gain the support of Iran necessary to help them maintain their statelet carved from Iraq, by helping to counter-balance the threats from Turkey.
"Shiite Iraqis may have hated Saddam, but they there weren't exactly falling all over themselves to join Kohmeini and his Iranian Revolution."
True. By and large they are more moderate (even secular) in their religious views then the Theocratic leadership in Iran --- but then, so is the longer generation in Iran.
Still, the new 'Iraqi government' JUST SIGNED A DEFENSE TREATY WITH IRAN (over US opposition), and they agreed to accept EVEN MORE military 'trainers' and support from Iran. (And they are writing more and more elements of Sharia into their new constitution --- at the urging of the Iranian Theocracy).
And, where else are they to turn for support against the continuous Sunni attacks (financed and supported by the Saudis and other Sunni nations in the region)?
New dividing lines separating the Sunni and Shi'a controlled areas (with the agreement of the regional powers) will be necessary for the conflict to eventually end.
And, this would be MUCH in the US's national interests. |
