| Understand that I'm not calling for big Treasury rallies, and hope Mish knows that. The wild cards are FCBs, they really control US monetary policy, and if you are buying longer maturity, you are placing your trust not just in the Fed (ha, ha), but China, and Japan. I'm saying use 3 month and 6 month for safety, and once in awhile as yield expands, maybe add a small amount of two years, like at the last auction. There is a three year auction on August 9th, and if it's close to 4.1%, I'll even use a little of that. Just creep duration out as rates increase, and if they invert, forget it, just stay short. My folks are well off and older, and I have them on a program of incrementally moving them into bills through Treasury Direct auctions, cleaning out their bank accounts, as I simply don't want them doing what I do, and I want them largely out of US financial institutions. |
