Systems and Interdependencies
And Their Effect on Peak Oil
Norman Church, Energy Roundtable via www.ezboard.com
“It has never happened!” cannot be construed to mean, “It can never happen!” – might as well say, “Because I have never broken my leg, my leg is unbreakable,” or “Because I’ve never died, I am immortal.” One thinks first of some great plague of insects – locusts or grasshoppers – when the species suddenly increases out of all proportion, and then just as dramatically sinks to a tiny fraction of what it has recently been. The higher animals also fluctuate. Some zoologists have even suggested a biological law; that the number of individuals in a species never remains constant, but always rises and falls – the higher the animal and the slower its breeding- rate, the longer its period of fluctuation.
As for man, there is little reason to think that he can, in the long run, escape the fate of other creatures, and if there is a biological law of flux and reflux, his situation is now a highly perilous one. During ten thousand years his numbers have been on the upgrade in spite of wars, pestilence, and famines. This increase in population has become more and more rapid. Biologically, man has for too long a time been rolling an uninterrupted run of sevens.
-George R Stewart, Earth Abides (1949)
Setting the Stage
The Worlds' population is now around 6.5 Billion. In order to grow the great quantities of food necessary to support this many people, large-scale distribution, automation, mechanization and co-ordination of countless systems is required. A reduction in the quantity of oil will severely disrupt our food growing capacity and means of distribution; we will be facing chaos and mass starvation of hundreds of millions worldwide.
Every major component of our modern infrastructure is supported by dense networks of systems and equipment, each of which relies on computers and/or computer systems to perform its functions. These computerized systems manage everything: transportation, power generation, manufacturing, telecommunications, finance, government, education, healthcare, defence.
Our reliance on technology has created a world whose efficient functioning is dependent on computer systems. Whatever happens in one part of the network has the potential to impact any other part of the network. We have created not only a computer-dependent society, but a planet whose interdependencies extend far beyond our imagination. The level of technological support and the interconnectedness of these systems are truly awesome.
The movement of food into our local supermarkets reveals a sequence of interdependent systems. As consumers, we demand delectable, fresh produce -- but few of us are aware of the intricate systems that make it possible for a mango from Peru to arrive on our tables in mid-winter. Most U.K. food markets get in fresh food shipments every two to three days. Whether it's brought in by truck, train, or ship, instantly we're back in the system networks, with the addition of new levels of complexity from the many systems that relate to food production, storage, and sales.
All of these systems rely directly or indirectly on fossil fuel energy............
(26 July 2005)
Originally posted at Energy Roundtable (requires membership). JCSamsara, who re-posted the article, said:
I am posting this here because it contains one of the best analysis of the 2000 UK Petro Strike I have seen. Even though it is long, I would highly recommend printing it off and reading it over coffee.
It is chilling how fast things collapse. For those who think a fast collapse is very unlikely, Take a look....
-BA
energybulletin.net
full article..
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