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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH

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To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (694556)7/30/2005 5:13:02 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) of 769670
 
--Stone & McCarthy (Princeton)-- The economy in the second quarter expanded at a 3.4% rate compared to an unrevised 3.8% annualized growth in the first quarter. Significant positive contributions to Q2 GDP growth were made by personal consumption, investment spending, a sharp improvement in the net export sector and government spending which was partly offset by a much slower pace of inventory accumulation. U.S. economic growth over the four quarters ending with Q2:05 held steady at a 3.6% growth rate, the same as over the four quarters ending in March. Final demand growth, GDP less change in business inventories, grew a faster 5.8% rate in Q2:05. Consumer spending in Q2 continues to exhibit solid strength; posting its four consecutive quarter of 3% to 4.5% growth. The growth in capital spending, while positive, slowed for the second straight quarter. An improved net export deficit added substantially to second quarter GDP growth. Partially offsetting these gains was a slower rate of inventory investment that constituted a major drag on the second quarter. Despite sustained high energy prices and the prospects of further Fed tightening, the economic outlook for the second half of 2005 looks every bit an encouraging as the just completed first half of the year.

The Key Elements of Q2:05 GDP -- The drivers of the $92.4 billion increase in second quarter GDP included: 1) a $63.4 billion increase in consumer spending which comprised 2.3% of the 3.4% GDP growth in the quarter; 2) a $26.9 billion increase in business investment in equipment and software spending accounted for 0.84% of second quarter growth; and 3) a $44.1 billion improvement in the net export deficit comprised 1.57% of second quarter growth. A $13.8 billion increase in residential investment and a $2.4 billion increase in government spending also added to the strength of Q2 GDP growth. A much slower pace of inventory investment was a huge $64.6 billion or -2.32% drag on Q2 growth.

The economy has been a bit like the Barenaked Ladies song "Shopping". The lyrics go something like: Well you know that it's going to be alright; I think it's gonna be alright; Everything will always be alright; When we go shopping. Let the shopping spree begin; Everybody wins; So shutup; And never stop. Personal consumption (PCE) during the second quarter grew at a very healthy 3.3% rate' little different from the 3.5% rate of the first quarter. Consumer spending has been a prime contributor to economic growth during the current expansion and looks poised to sustain that role into 2006.

Non-residential fixed investment added $27.3 billion to Q2 GDP growth as it grew at a 9.0% rate compared to the 5.7% rate posted in Q1. Investment in non-residential structures increased, rising at a0.5x% rate or by $2.0 billion. It was another solid quarter for equipment and software spending which rose by $26.9 billion or 11.0% during the second quarter. Spending on capital goods during the second half of 2005 should remain healthy, about on par with recent quarters.

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