Hi Bob,
PLEASE DO NOT MISUNDERSTAND ME!!! I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A CRASH ANYTIME SOON!!!
The markets may prove me wrong, but I believe there is a greater chance of 8,900 - the max on DJ using a log plot and a 1% Kagi format with Raff channels back to late 1994 - THAN THERE IS FOR 6,500 which is the min on DJ using the same plot.
Unfortunately (or fortunately... depending on your interpretation), we all hear what we want to hear... and the business of the thread is in predicting major market moves, not bear markets, no matter how tempting the interpretation of the name "Big Kahuna."
Yes, I think we will have a crash... but it is not in place yet... in fact, I believe the next strong move up HAS to be preceeded by a daily VIX number under 20... that is what has happened in the past... so I am waiting for a strong BULL signal, not a bear signal... even though we have had some strong bear signals recently.
To believe otherwise, in my humble opinion, is like trying to stop a speeding freight train by standing in front of it...
SPLAT!
Regards and good splatting (gggg),
Bill |
