Date: Wed Aug 03 2005 14:21
trotsky (frustrated@PoG vs. foreign currencies) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it's definitely a potentially momentous event that gold has begun to outperform a number of currencies. but these break-outs are still young, so it's not yet certain whether they will really hold. if they do, it would amount to a signal that the markets believe the CB's are about to lose control and will be forced to resort to 'extraordinary measures' ( i.e., get the chopper fleet out ) . however, i think it's too early to conclude that this signal is already in evidence beyond doubt.
Date: Wed Aug 03 2005 14:15
trotsky (frustrated@GSE's) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
yes, there's a lot of worry that the sheer size of their balance sheets could pose a systemic risk in case of a crisis...one Fed governor ( name escapes me now, i think it was Ferguson ) even held a speech detailing HOW such a systemic crisis centering on the GSEs might unfold.
whatever happens though, you can rest assured that the tax payer will ( involuntarily ) pick up the tab.
Date: Wed Aug 03 2005 14:05
trotsky (Hambone, 13:12) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"No court orders and no formal oversight of any kind. There really is nothing to prevent agents from working on their own behalf. Worst of all, no one is allowed to discuss the event under penalty of law."
"I don't have a clue what the above means."
then it's high time you got acquainted with the 'Patriot Act'. it allows federal agents to do just about anything in terms of search and seizure, without a court order and without oversight, as long as they claim it is connected to a 'terrorism investigation'. and indeed, if they e.g. request your library records, or search your safe deposit box, they don't have to tell you and all those aware of these going-ons are forbidden by law to reveal them to you. as Earl says, if rogue agents decided to e.g. act for their own benefit, you'd have zero recourse - since you wouldn't even KNOW what happened.
as a consequence , we do not know whether these powers have not already been abused. i think it's a VERY good bet that they have been. otoh, the State has nothing to show for it so far ( how many genuine terrorism convictions have been achieved? ) . in essence, it is already a police state - there's no need to sugarcoat it, that's exactly what it is.
Date: Wed Aug 03 2005 13:52
trotsky (Hambone, 12:43) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"the government is going to confiscate my safe deposit box when the time is "ripe". Uh huh. Sure."
well, it HAS happened before, in 1933/4. all safe deposit boxes had to be opened in the presence of an IRS agent as a consequence of FDR's order to confiscate the citizen's gold ( prior to devaluing the paper dollar by 70% against this gold - AFTER the confiscation ) . so don't say it isn't possible, because it sure is.
Date: Wed Aug 03 2005 13:39
trotsky (frustrated&Sherlock@the Fed) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it appears, judging from recent FOMC minutes and Magoo's carefully worded statements at the recent testimony on the hill, that they are in fact trying to target the real estate bubble. this shouldn't be too surprising i guess, since the Fed represents the banking system ( i.e. it is the nexus where the State and the banks connect for the mutually beneficial robbing of the citizenry via the 'inflation tax' ) , and in spite of Greenspan's protestations to the contrary, the banking system's exposure to the real estate bubble probably gives rise to grave concerns at this point.
my guess would be that the thinking goes along the lines of 'we know it's a bubble, and we know the sooner it breaks the easier it will be to deal with the fall-out', so they've decided to gun rates higher in spite of the enormous structural weakness of the economy and the continued large output gap - not to mention the absence of any worrisome inflationary pressures ( e.g. year-on-year wage growth just fell to fresh post WW2 low, negative in real terms ) .
of course i for one doubt they will be able to contain the fall-out, but they sure will try. the question for the gold market is whether it decides to look ahead to the monetary and fiscal interventionism that is absolutely certain to be implemented after the bubble breaks, or if it will prove more concerned with how high the FF rate will go until that happens. imo these future influences on the market battling it out is what has led to gold being mired in a tight trading range over the past few months.
Date: Wed Aug 03 2005 13:05
trotsky (Aurum) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Northern Iraq, the 'no-fly zone' was all this time under the control of the Kurds and the coalition.
the mythical Al-Zarquawi meanwhile ( who knows if he really exists... ) declared himself allied with Al Quaeda only after the insurgency was already well underway.
there was ZERO fundamentalist terrorism in Iraq BEFORE the invasion. case closed.
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