First Things First - let's make sure the HUI/Goldstocks "really" have something to celebrate about before we break out too many Pom-Poms and get too giddy (vbg) ?
A little Reality Check may be in order for us goldbugs:
stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[d20041115,20050803][pf][iut!lj[$gold]][J54037815,Y]&listNum=2
Today's action was very positive - it was EXACTLY what we've been waiting to see:
- VOLUME
Breakout thru:
- 200 dma.
- overhead resistance.
- prior high from the move off of the May bottom.
BUT - we've been fooled many times before.
NOW - we need to CONFIRM the move.
In my thinking; I would have preferred that GOLD had led and not followed - this move in commodity's.
- but I'll take it.
Given the series of lower highs in both Gold and the HUI over the last few months - I can not see the Fundies taking the Gold Stocks out too far in front of the Metals move.
Gold still has some work to do here... Bullish Wedge is promising, but 50 dma needs to take out that 200 dma and GOLD NEEDS TO LEAD, not follow - the CRB.
stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[de][pb50!b200!f][iut!lj[$crb]][j56366266,y]&listNum=2
The HUI has now taken out recent resistance, but it needs 3 consecutive closes to confirm the "continuation" of this move up off of the bottom.
re: "the CONTINUATION"
The HUI on the April/May Lows "offered" an extreme HUI:GOLD divergence and a corresponding STRONG BUY on the discrepancy between price and risk that gave us HUI 165.
From that bottom, the HUI offered up a +40 Point "V-Bottom" Rally in just 20 trading days.
- from that point forward, over the past 6 weeks the HUI has offered an 11 point / 5-6% Trading Range.
- even with today's move, we now stand less than +4 Index Points above the HUI 206.87 intra-day high from 3 weeks ago and only +5 points (which is only +2.5% people) above the closing high on this move of 205.01 on July 11th.
We've trade above HUI 200 for 22 out of the last 34 trading days over the last 7 weeks.
- that means that for 65% of that timeframe, or 2/3rds of the trading days over the last 7 weeks... we've been within 4-5% of todays close.
... I don't know about anyone else, but +40 Points in 20 Trading Days ?
- yes, I'll celebrate that.
But, +4,5 points and + 2.5% over where we've been for 22 of the last 34 trading days ?
- please.... at least on THIS THREAD - let's hold off on the Pom-Poms, unless one "really" has SOMETHING to celebrate.
;)
'nuff said.
... 3 days - 3 consecutive closes...AND Gold must LEAD - not follow ~
And it "aint" Profit - untill it's in the Bank.
$lider` |
