Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: elmatador who wrote (66952)	8/5/2005 4:03:21 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 74559

From Kunstlers recent NY lecture - "We have been making up for our shortfall in gas in recent years by buying a lot of gas from Canada. The NAFTA treaty compels them to sell us their gas, and they are technically in depletion too. They're not happy about this. About half the houses in America are heated with natural gas. Nobody know what we are going to do when the depletion arc gets steeper. Oh, another problem with gas. The wells run dry just like this (snap!). Unlike oil wells, which go from gusher to steady stream to declining stream, gas wells either put out gas or they stop. And there's no warning when they are close to running out. Because, the gas is coming out of the ground under its own pressure. As the gas wells of North America continue to deplete, we will have little warning." *************my comment Gas wells depleting with a snap - close to true for wells in the Austin Chalk (I have a very minor interest in one) and a number of other types of gas wells - maybe 15% of production. But not true of the other 85%... He also likes to take proven reserve estimates, divide them by current consumption rates, and announce the quotient as if it were years to doomsday.... The guy is pedaling a mythology of near total resource depletion. The "end of oil" is what he is pushing. Not the "end of cheap oil" Canadian tar sands, deep offshore, advanced recovery like waterflood mean we get to pay more for oil - it won't go away.

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