I have been paying a lot more attention to SD housing the last couple of months.
Since I started collecting data on June 23, inventory did go up.
Interesting enough, it was a continuous pattern up from 12,055 on June 23 to 13,903 today. Average days on market ranges from 52 to 56 during this period. Though it is up 15% or 1,848 listings, I do not have the data to show if that is normal seasonal pattern or not.
The average listing price did drop from a high of $802,000 to $793,699 today.
Total closed sales from Jan 04 through July 04 were 25,608. The average days on market was 28. The avg list price was $567,461 while the avg sold price was $551,912.
Total closed sales from Jan 05 through July 05 were 24,216. The average days on market was 51. The avg list price was $625,242 while the avg sold price was $600,420.
Pending sales for the same period did drop, from 6,908 on June 23 to 6,249 today. Average days on market is 50. Avg listing price is $654,921.
The above are FACTUAL DATA. The following observations are based on my experience and are my opinions:
Market time of 50ish should still be considered pretty healthy. The short marketing time of less than 30 during the first half of 2004 was simply exceptional.
Properties are selling at a pace of around 3,000 to 3,500 per month. It is definitely slower and we are sitting on a 3 to 4 months inventory. However, during previous down cycles, I remember it being common we have over 9 months of listed inventory plus who knew how many who wanted to sell but were discouraged to put their houses on the market. We are far from that stage.
Unknown now is the number of condo conversions that are for sale and not listed in the MLS.
I opine that the first sign of problem would be a rise in escrow cancellation, be it purchase or refi. Unfortunately, the only way to get that information real time is to harass my contacts to a point that they won't they my phone calls anymore.
The second best indicator would be new escrow orders, especially purchase escrows but refi escrows could also be important. Unfortunately, it also involve harassing title and escrow companies.
In summary, I conclude that the hyper bubble period for San Diego that started around the first half of 2004 is over, but there is no evidence that a big decline has started. When I figure out which day San Diego real estate will fall off the edge, I will certainly post it here first. <ggggg>
Ramsey |
