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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Moominoid who wrote (67083)8/8/2005 12:19:26 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Very good! Thanks. Now we are on the right track. An unexperienced analsyist would "assume that people will not reduce energy use at all. They don't look at the real effect of reduced energy use on economic activity. This IMO is because their whole framework of analysis is biased against finding an important role for energy."

I think they just don't know. The oild shock happened when this guy was on diapers or was in primary school or was chasing girls as a teenager. What bhe knows he read on a book. Or learned at school.

"Natural scientists/engineers do not make that mistake." Aha! Exactly. Even if they are the same age, they look to the very same issue on a scientific way. Then even if they read on a book or learn with peers their knowledge should be much deeped than the oil analysts. Besides they don't have a so clear stake on the outcome as a analyist do.

"Of course natural scientists tend to make the mistake of not realizing how adaptable people and economic institutions are."

Again right. Because they look to it as if the market didn't exist. (Leaving people out -and its iteractions- off an equation makes much easier to solve it.)

"To really understand what is going on you need to be interdisciplinary and combien insights from both natural and social science."

You're the man. You're the man!!! Hence a community such as the BBR, can grasp the issue much better than the specialists usig their narrow range of knowledge, albeit their knowledge is very deep but very narrowband.
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