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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1528)	8/8/2005 4:27:31 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) of 24213

Transcript Saudi Oil and the World Economy (long article) Matthew Simmons Author, "Twilight in the Desert" Thursday, August 4, 2005; 3:00 PM In his recently published book "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy," author Matthew Simmons argues that Saudi Arabia will in coming decades be unable to maintain its current level of oil production, with large-economic repercussions. Simmons also examines the political and social climate of the nation and its desire to conceal the potential shortfalls from global consumers. Matthew Simmons , an oil industry analyst and CEO of Simmons & Company International, was online Thursday, August 4, at 3 p.m. ET to discuss Saudi oil supplies. The transcript follows. ____________________ Ottawa, Canada: There have recently been large oil discoveries in China's Bohai Bay. How do you see this affecting the oil supply situation over the next decade? Matthew Simmons: The Bohai Bay is probably a very productive area but you're talking about fields that have production profiles of 50-100,000 barrels a day each and they're apparently not very long life reserves. So you'd have to have scores of them to replace the giant fields of Saudi Arabia. _______________________ Suwanee, Ga.: Some analysts think the world will reach its Hubbert's Peak in the next year. What is your opinion of when this will occur? Matthew Simmons: The biggest worry I have as a result of doing the research on Saudi Arabia's oil is that there is a real risk that they have already exceeded sustainable peak oil production and the longer the produce at current risk the higher the risk that they could start into a production collapse. If that turns out to be true than the odds are 95% that the world has then exceeded sustained peak oil production. What the people that get into the peak oil debate often don't think about is that peak oil is not the maximum amount of oil you could produce in a single day, it's realistically the amount you could produce per day for at least a half decade. Therefore it could already be happening. And we'll never know that until we get better data. much more @_______________________ washingtonpost.com

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