Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Slagle who wrote (67203)	8/10/2005 2:12:45 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Reserves of publicly listed oil companies are reliable (until they restate them), but just reflect the balance between extraction and exploration. There is no reason to explore while reserves are big enough as it cost money. As for OPEC countries, quota depends on reserves and so countries have incentive to exaggerate reserves. But in all these mineral areas there are several further definitions beyond "proven reserves" which are arm waving based on a little geological data. And economically viable reserves in the future will depend on the cost of future extraction which depends on both geological depletion and technological change in extraction as well as the future price of oil. No-one knows any of this stuff except maybe to an order of magnitude when you get far enough out. So instead people base predictions on fitting trends to time series and trying to extract out the fluctuations and predict the underlying trend - the Hubbert Curve. So anyone claiming to know that "peak oil" is this year is just talking BS I think. It will happen some day, but the range of predictions for that date remains wide.

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