The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (37503)	8/10/2005 6:00:22 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) of 306849

Residential investment was high in the '50s (not as high as right now as a % of GDP). Other RE related activities are much higher now (existing home resales, refis). The '50s boom was the result of everything I mentioned (WWII vets buying, tax changes, booming economy) and one I left off - there had been very little RE investment between 1930 and 1945 - first because of the depression and then because of WWII. RI averaged under 2% of GDP for those years ('30 to '45). So a boom following the war was reasonable. I was going to write that this will be the first time someone compared the '90s to the depression, but that is wrong on two counts: 1) Grace didn't make that comparison, and 2) Kudlow predicted a depression in '94 - one of his great calls along with $12 oil after the Iraq invasion, and buying JDSU in Mar '00 ... and hopefully his recent strong buy on TOL at $102 (presplit).

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