Sergio: I have two reasons why I think that the first fc powered cars will be introduced no sooner than 7-8 years from now:
1. That is what DB continues to predict. The company was asked about this at the press conference on August 26 when the deal with Ballard was officially signed. According to the Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter, "Juergen Hubbert [the DB guy in charge of passenger cars] said fuel cell cars still need a great deal of work to make them economical. For example, he said, current internal combustion engines typically cost about DM25-30 (US$13.90-16.70) per kWh. With fuel cells, he added, we're talking in the range of DM10,000 ($5,555) per kWh. The bottom line, according to Hubbert, was that the first series-produced fuel cell vehicle could come to market in the years 2004-2005."
There is no law requiring fc engines to be as cheap as ic engines for there to be a market. I could see the engines being twice or three times the ic price and still be successful, at least on high end cars. But even that goal involves cutting the costs to less than 1% of current levels. And remember: engines are not semiconductors. There are a lot of specialty components and ingredients, from the platinum needed as a catalyst, to parts of the reforming equipment needed to extract pure hydrogen from methanol, whose cost will not drop 99% no matter what.
Of course, DB wouldn't be spending all the money if it did not think it could overcome all the hurdles. Enthusiasm and intent are necessary, but no guarantee of success. This is the sort of project that could easily run five years behind schedule.
2. Another reason not to expect a fc car in 2-4 years is suggested in by these lines in today's press release:
"Daimler-Benz decided to opt for methanol because it is the most suitable fuel for hydrogen generation. Although gasoline and diesel were also considered, the efficiency levels of these fuels would have been lower. For the introductory phase of fuel-cell powered vehicles, at least, engineers are considering the possibility of a multi-fuel concept which, as the name suggests, will permit the utilization of different types of fuel until methanol is generally available."
That tells me that DB is concerned about methanol availability in gas stations. Presumably station owners will have to invest money in new pumps and storage tanks for the methanol, which they would be disinclined to do unless they expected a lot of business from fc cars. The multi-fuel fc car is not a happy compromise - it probably would have no trunk, since it would need space for two separate reforming systems and two fuel tanks. Straight methanol is better.
So DB will have to make sure that there are a lot of fc powered cars on the road, to get gas station owners to invest in methanol, which in turn will further encourage the sales of fc cars.
How would DB do that? Two ways come to mind:
First, it would sell the cars well below cost, in order to get people to try them. This fits in with my theory that the first profits from the DB/Ballard engine facility won't come for some number of years after cars are commercially introduced, nor will Ballard be allowed to make much (or anything) on the fuel cells sold to the joint venture.
The second way would be to encourage other car companies to produce cars using the engines. This would get more fc cars on the road, and the higher engine volume would cut the production cost of the engines.
It could easily take three or four years for car companies to design a line of fc powered cars, even if they were just buying the engines as is. So I think that we will know when DB thinks commercial introduction will come, because about four years before then you will hear of other car companies starting to plan vehicles using its engine.
I am not an auto designer and rarely read an auto magazine, so I would hope more knowledgeable people here would correct my lead time estimate, if I am wrong. Barring that, I'll stick with no sooner than 7-8 years for introduction, then add several years before the first black ink. |
