President Bush has earned his plunging poll numbers
By ROGER SIMON
GEORGE BUSH'S poll numbers are in decline because the Iraq war hangs around his neck like a two-ton albatross.
The latest AP-Ipsos poll puts approval for Bush's handling of the war at only 38 percent and his overall job approval at only 42 percent. (In addition, 50 percent of the country says he is a dishonest and only 48 percent says he is honest.)
The latest Newsweek poll puts Bush's war approval at only 34 percent and his overall approval at 42 percent, his lowest ranking ever.
Since Bush doesn't have to run for office again, you might wonder why this matters. There are at least two reasons:
Republicans in Congress have to run for re-election next year, and these figures terrify them. The numbers are getting so bad — as is the war in Iraq — that some are already wondering whether a campaign visit by the President would be a plus or a minus in their districts.
One reason the administration is now talking — largely via leaks to the news media — about a pull-down of troops in Iraq next year is that congressional Republicans are virtually demanding a return of some U.S. troops before Election Day. And the Republican Party does not want to even think about trying to run a presidential campaign in 2008 if large numbers of U.S. troops are still fighting and dying in Iraq.
The best thing the Republicans have going for them, in fact, is that the Democrats are not offering any solutions. Most Democrats just parrot what the White House is saying: We must stay the course in Iraq. It's not over until it's over. We will have accomplished our mission when our mission is accomplished.
For voters, this is not a choice, but an echo.
One would think that antiwar Democrat Paul Hackett's narrow loss in a special election for a House seat in Ohio recently would give some Democrats the courage to actually oppose the war. But it probably won't. (And Hackett, of course, was an actual Iraq war veteran, which helped deflect criticism of him.)
Yet the amount of voter discontent over the war is still far more trouble for the Republicans, since it was a Republican administration that initiated the war (because of those mirage-like weapons of mass destruction) and continues to pursue it (because it doesn't know what else to do).
The other reason that Bush is upset with the polls numbers is that they show his political capital now running a deficit.
Those who hailed Bush's recent legislative "triumphs" — the energy bill, the highway bill and CAFTA — overlook political reality. In the real America, you can't find a hundred people who know anything about the energy bill, highway bill or CAFTA.
Average Americans — and this is due in large part to a ferocious publicity campaign by the White House — are familiar with only one legislative initiative: Social Security. And whatever happened to George Bush's plans to privatize it?
Gone and buried — along with his high poll numbers.
Roger Simon is chief political correspondent for U.S. News & World Report.
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