A tougher battle for the 'burbs
Santorum easily carried the counties outside Phila. before. But voters are shifting to the left.
By Thomas Fitzgerald
Inquirer Staff Writer
On Paoli Pike one night last week, dozens of protesters jeered, waved signs and banged pots as an SUV carried Republican Sen. Rick Santorum to an appearance touting It Takes a Family, his book of conservative thought.
Inside Chester County Books & Music Co., about 150 people lined up to have Santorum sign their copies with a Sharpie. Several said they were praying for him.
The competing scenes, replayed the next night in Bryn Mawr, offered a hint of the coming battle for the coveted voters of the Philadelphia suburbs as Santorum heads into a difficult 2006 reelection campaign.
Although he carried the four suburban counties comfortably in 1994 and 2000, analysts say his controversial book has helped raise Santorum's right-wing profile at a time when voters there are drifting leftward.
So has his outspoken leadership on other causes: opposing stem-cell research as the destruction of human life, fighting gay marriage, and advocating intelligent design as an alternative to the theory of evolution.
In early polls, Santorum trails his likely Democratic opponent, State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., and regional breakdowns show that the percentage of voters saying the senator deserves reelection is lower in the Philadelphia suburbs than elsewhere.
Both sides recognize the importance of the region and are targeting Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery Counties, where registered Republicans still outnumber Democrats - but by a margin that has narrowed in recent years.
The key, they say, is moderate Republicans who have proved willing to split their tickets, supporting GOP candidates for local offices and the state legislature while voting Democratic in presidential and statewide contests. Years of polls show the moderates are discomfited by the national GOP's stance on social issues such as abortion.
"Santorum was able to win his two elections because he carried the southeast, so this is the place," said Berwood Yost, a pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster.
Santorum, the Senate's third-ranking Republican leader and a favorite of conservative Christian groups, has already drawn fire from Democrats for pushing Congress' intervention in the Terri Schiavo case, his unwavering support for President Bush, and, now, the book.
In it, Santorum blames liberal "elites" for problems besetting families. In one passage, Santorum questions why women find careers more gratifying and socially rewarding than staying home with children. "We can thank the influence of radical feminism," he writes.
"He's in a bit of a dream world," said Ellen O'Shea of Willistown, a mother of two who was wearing an apron and patrolling the road with a sign.
"I didn't realize I brought down Western civilization," said O'Shea, a customer representative. "I work out of necessity; there's only four short years till college."
Her sister Andrea Lynch of Malvern, in an apron and a pair of holly-wreath oven mitts, said she found Santorum offensive and judgmental. A registered Democrat, Lynch said she had voted Republican and is a fan of Sen. Arlen Specter (R., Pa.).
Santorum supporters said he was voicing uncomfortable truths about the strain popular culture puts on families.
"He's bringing up the questions people are dealing with in their everyday lives," said Katie Buonanno, 34, of East Goshen. "We need to talk about where the country is going, and it's good to be challenged. We don't get that kind of leadership."
At the book-signing, Santorum said he called the traditional family "ideal" for raising children but did not advocate "being intolerant" of others.
Santorum said he knew snippets of his 449-page book would come back to bite him as ads aimed at moderate suburban women. He argued that attacks would actually help his reelection by making his opponents look "cynical and negative." He said he hoped he would get credit for courage.
"In a world of sound bites, it's risky," Santorum acknowledged. "The cynical attitude of Washington is you can fool all the people all the time and all you need to do is the political dance. I don't play that game."
When he was first elected in 1994, Santorum benefited from national trends in what became a referendum on anger over "big government" and President Bill Clinton's failed health-care plan. Santorum narrowly beat Sen. Harris Wofford.
Six years later, he ran against former Rep. Ron Klink, an antiabortion and pro-gun Democrat who was making his first statewide race and had little money. Analysts say that with social issues neutralized, suburbia's moderate Republicans honored their roots.
"That was before Rick Santorum decided to be the hero of the 'I'm right, you're wrong' wing of the Republican Party," said Jay Reiff, Casey's campaign manager.
Now, Santorum will likely face Casey, who, along with his namesake father, the late governor, has always run well in southwestern Pennsylvania, the other major swing area in the state. That region is dominated by conservative Democrats who split their tickets.
Pollster Yost said Santorum also had the burden of Bush's sagging popularity in the state, especially over Iraq and the proposal to partially privatize Social Security. "Essentially Casey can do to Santorum what he did to Wofford," Yost said.
John Brabender, Santorum's strategist, said that Casey's support from trial lawyers and opposition to caps on medical malpractice suits and to making the Bush tax cuts permanent are powerful messages. "Rick has a great story to tell in the southeast," Brabender said.
And he's the incumbent. Just a few hours before another book signing in Bryn Mawr on Thursday, Santorum visited Valley Forge National Historical Park to pass out more than $24 million in federal funding for three projects, the bulk of it for improvements to Route 422 near the park.
To Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler, that's a smart move. "What's happened so far is Santorum is running a national race," Ceisler said. "He should run a local race talking about all he's done for Pennsylvania." |
