TJ,
Well, USD is good for a little more than Starbucks. Boeing is the #1 US exporter and as I've said before will do fabulously with declining USD. US also has vast coal reserves, to do well with weak USD, and some uranium as well. Dell is lowering computer margins to take a run at Lenovo. The US way of life is at stake and not everyone is running their house like a hedge fund with capital call-linked-ATM card ready for imminent extraction of downpayment for condo in popular zip code. The UK, US, Australia and Canada have all extracted home equity, because most Western gov'ts have been extracting wealth from middle class through fuzzy CPI.
Perhaps America will weaken to be more like Germany, though.
As for declining marginal Chinese oil demand impacting prices, that is only part of the solution to peak oil. In the meantime Chavez sabre-rattles, the US consumer drives 3 ton Ford pickup to buy 12ounce latte (does not activate winch except at drive-through), and US taxpayer's Iraqi reconstruction money funds the next election, keeping global oil production down.
I see India's oil demand rising as well, demand growth noted at 10% for July 05. While Chinese noodle delivery van is idled, Biryani delivery van gets busy.
spacemart.com
India could replace Chinese slack demand.
-all the while many major oil companies (Chevron will show an increase in production with UCL in the portfolio but on a global scale we lost UCL's production). More fuzzy numbers.
The world is more complex than when it was just the West and as you say even Stratfor cannot appreciate, let alone I.
D |
