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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (20796)8/16/2005 11:31:04 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (4) of 78704
 
Bought 1/2 positions in travel stocks TSG and EXPE.
Both are good business with high FCF (low capex and working ) capital. They are the leaders in their respective markets - TSG own the market leading SABRE booking system and the Travelocity website (23% market share). EXPE own Exedia and Hotel.com website with more than 40% market shares. Both stocks are cheap, IMO. TSG trades at a PE of 13, EXPE trades at and EV/EBITDA of around 11, if my calculation is correct. EXPE stock has fallen from grace after the spinoff from Interactive, which is a good chance to own a stake in the most attractive IACI business at a reasonable price. I admit that the "noncash" stock option expense is fairly high, but that number has been coming down quickly over the years.

I still need to investigate EXPE numbers some more, the EBITDA number above is only a rough estimates based on the SEC prospectus. IACI's number are very convoluted through acquisitions etc. and EXPE's as a recent spinoff is difficult to evaluate as a standalone entity as well but it's fairly obvious that EXPE generate a fair amount of FCF.

To raise some cash, i sold my starter position in BFCF at a modest profit. I also sold some VIA but still hold a full size position (I was overweight, when the stock went to 32$). I think marketswill offer some bargains in September.
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