hello shades, regarding stratfor, by which i use for triangulation, they with their point view, and i with by judgement of the truth ...
i figure more troubles going forward, because the last time i looked at the map,india sits between pakistan and bangladesh, and the three have a history together, going back a ways
if so, then new dynamism is being injected into an old story, and the story is not yet over
me guess the cowboy will be calling for help before even i believe possible, and soon, else the mess will be difficult to contain, much less to clean up
tip of the day, buy the dip in energy, and count on trouble in saudi arabia, for it is obvious, and venezuela, for it is certainly possible, and gee, the swing producers may be supposedly disintegrating russia andostensibly enemy iran
Bangladesh Bombings: Responding to al Qaeda's Call
Summary
More than 400 bombs exploded in a span of about half an hour across Bangladesh on Aug. 17. The bombs were crude and ineffective, leaving two people dead and more than 140 injured. However, the spread and sheer volume of the bombings indicates that local Islamist militants are responding to al Qaeda's call to establish an Islamic state and expel Westerners from the Muslim world.
Analysis
At least 400 timed explosive devices and firecrackers exploded nearly simultaneously between 11 a.m. and 11:39 a.m. local time Aug. 17 in Bangladesh's capital city of Dhaka and the southeastern port city of Chittagong, killing two people and injuring more than 140. The bombings occurred outside the Sheraton hotel in Dhaka, the Dhaka International Airport, government and court buildings, universities and bus and train stations.
The bombings appeared amateurish -- the explosives were small, homemade devices likely intended to cause minimal casualties but generate panic across the country. Leaflets were reportedly found around the blast sites with messages from local Islamist militant group Jamiat-ul Mujahideen (JuM) that read, "It is time to implement Islamic law in Bangladesh. There is no future with man-made law." Other flyers read, "Bush and Blair, be warned and get out of Muslim countries. Your days of ruling Muslim countries are over." Messages also included direct threats against nongovernmental organizations engaged in "anti-Islamic activity in Muslim countries."
The local Islamist militant outfits linked to this organized operation include JuM and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB). JMJB follows the teachings of the Taliban and has known links to al Qaeda, while JuM is an active Islamist group connected to JMJB and claimed responsibility for two bombings that occurred within one week in January. Both attacks targeted cultural events and were small in magnitude and casualty counts. Though both groups have been unable to coordinate such a spectacular -- albeit ineffective -- attack in the past, it is possible that Bangladesh's local Islamist movement is showing that it has jumped on al Qaeda's jihadist bandwagon and is looking for support.
Though it is admittedly easy to blame al Qaeda every time something blows up, it is important to understand how the transnational jihadist movement behaves. Al Qaeda's tactics include three kinds of attacks:
1. Large-scale attacks outside the Muslim world micromanaged by the al Qaeda leadership, including Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. These attacks include the Sept. 11 attacks, the Madrid bombings and the July London bombings.
2. Attacks carried out by local al Qaeda franchises, which include al Qaeda's organized branches in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
3. Exported attacks carried out by local militant Islamist groups in which al Qaeda prime relays a general call for attacks but the expectation of success is usually low. The Bangladesh bombings fall into this category, as do attacks staged by the Taliban in Afghanistan and local militant groups in Pakistan.
Home to the world's third-largest Muslim population, Bangladesh is an ideal breeding ground for Islamist militants. Al Qaeda even has a liaison in Bangladesh -- Fazlur Rahman Khan, emir of the Jihad Movement in Bangladesh and a signatory to the 1998 declaration of war against the United States issued by bin Laden and his then-newly launched World Islamic Front for Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders. Bangladesh is also not without geopolitical importance; though limited, its primary significance is that it is the second-largest contributor to U.N. peacekeeping forces, with more than 8,400 peacekeepers from Bangladesh deployed all over the world.
Tactically speaking, the Aug. 17 bombings were ineffective if the goal was to inflict many casualties. However, low casualty numbers would be beneficial if the responsible groups wanted to display a jihadist presence in Bangladesh without alienating potential supporters in the country. Just as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi attracted al Qaeda's attention with brutal beheadings and large-scale attacks in Iraq, local militants in Bangladesh could be using a similar tactic to garner support. The local militants are not likely to achieve such a goal, however, given Bangladesh's liberal society and secularist-dominated military.
Transnational militant Islamism is no stranger to Bangladesh. Though the bombings were highly unsophisticated, the political messages associated with the attack reveal shades of al Qaeda -- or of a tactic meant to draw al Qaeda prime's attention. If transnational jihadism begins to spread into South Asia, India could be the next country facing an increased threat from indigenous Islamist groups that al Qaeda has incited into action.
Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.
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