Clinton, Eying Future Campaigns, Weighs Effect of Roberts Vote Listen
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is the favorite for re-election next year no matter how she votes on Supreme Court nominee John Roberts. The political calculations for that vote are more complicated if the New York Democrat seeks the presidency two years later.
``A vote for Roberts would be a very strong signal that she is trying to reconfigure herself as Bill Clinton did, as someone coming out of the right wing of the Democratic Party rather than the liberal wing,'' said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute for Governmental Studies at the University of California at Berkeley.
At the same time, support for Roberts carries political risks for her in a presidential primary, said Mark Rozell, a professor of political science at George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia. Other possible Democratic contenders -- such as Massachusetts Senator John Kerry or former North Carolina Senator John Edwards -- may argue to primary voters that support for Roberts is a betrayal of Democratic Party ideals.
``She potentially alienates some of the hard-core partisans in the Democratic Party, and these are the people who are an enormous influence on the party nominating process,'' Rozell said.
Roberts, a federal appeals court judge and President George W. Bush's first Supreme Court pick, has drawn opposition from abortion- rights groups. Republicans control the Senate 55-45, and no Democrat has threatened a filibuster, the tactic that would be the best chance to stop his confirmation to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.
Republican Strongholds
Clinton, 57, will cast her vote on Roberts as she is trying to build support in Republican strongholds in upstate New York. Winning counties in the 2006 election that voted against her in 2000 may help her put to rest concerns that she is too liberal to win the presidency as the Democratic nominee in 2008, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, based in Poughkeepsie, New York.
A WNBC/Marist poll of registered New York voters on Aug. 9 found that 50 percent support Clinton in her Senate re-election bid, compared with 28 percent for Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the leading Republican challenger.
A vote for Roberts would help her appeal to swing voters in the 2008 general election if she is the Democratic nominee, Miringoff said.
Appearing With Gingrich
Clinton, who as first lady accused political opponents of orchestrating a ``vast right-wing conspiracy,'' has recently emphasized a more bipartisan approach. In May she appeared at a press conference with a longtime political foe, Republican former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, to endorse legislation that would promote the electronic filing of medical records. She joked that some might see the collaboration as a sign of an imminent apocalypse.
In a January New York speech to family-planning providers, Clinton, who has long supported abortion rights, expressed respect for those who ``believe with all their hearts and conscience that there are no circumstances under which any abortion should ever be available.'' She called on both sides of the debate to reduce abortions by focusing on preventing unwanted pregnancies.
``You get the clear sense that nationally she wants to project that there is a red state or two that she could gobble up if she were the candidate,'' Miringoff said, referring to the color denoting Republican-leaning states on election-night television maps.
Clinton said in an interview that she would base her decision on Roberts's qualifications and would keep an open mind until after he testifies at hearings starting Sept. 6.
Wait and See
``I think it's important not to reach any conclusions, but to just have an open mind and wait until the hearings proceed and see what information is forthcoming and how he responds to questions,'' Clinton said last week after a meeting with constituents in Olean, N.Y. ``He's obviously very smart and very focused, and I'm going to be watching and listening carefully.''
The interest groups opposing Roberts aren't united in their attitude toward Clinton's vote.
Kelli Conlin, executive director of Naral Pro-Choice New York, an abortion-rights group, said that while her group is pushing Clinton and Senator Chuck Schumer, another New York Democrat, to vote against Roberts, it is ``appropriate'' for Clinton to wait until after the hearings to make up her mind.
``Either he's going to be very articulate, in which case there's going to be very few people who are opposing him, or you're going to see a lot of Democrats opposing him,'' including Clinton, Conlin said.
Activists' Concerns
Nan Aron, president of the Alliance for Justice, which has opposed many Bush nominees, said Clinton shouldn't ignore the concerns of activist groups that adding Roberts to the court would be a mistake.
``I cannot imagine at the end of the day she will vote to support his confirmation,'' Aron said. Her group was among several that sought to put pressure on Democratic senators on Aug. 16 by urging them to be more aggressive in challenging Roberts over views on abortion and public-school prayer that he expressed in memos written while he was a lawyer in President Ronald Reagan's White House and Justice Department.
Miringoff said the risk to Clinton if she votes in favor of Roberts is that, if he is confirmed and proves to be more conservative than anticipated, voters in primary states may hold it against her. ``Her core voters might not be pleased with that,'' he said.
Even if Clinton angers activist groups by voting in favor of Roberts, she has time to patch things up before 2008, said Jeffrey Stonecash, a professor of political science at Syracuse University.
``Some of the liberals will grumble, but they might not have any choice'' if she is the Democratic nominee, he said. ``They're not going to vote for the other guys.''
Early Front-Runner
National polls show that Clinton is the early front-runner for her party's presidential nomination in 2008. An August 5-7 Gallup Poll found that 40 percent of registered Democratic voters prefer her over other possible nominees. Next in line were Kerry and Edwards, the party's 2004 presidential and vice presidential nominees, who garnered 16 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
Looking ahead to possible general-election matchups, a July 25- 28 Gallup Poll found Clinton trailing two potential Republican candidates, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Senator John McCain of Arizona. Both led Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. Kerry trailed both Giuliani and McCain by 54 percent to 41 percent, according to the survey.
Clinton ``is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee,'' Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, predicted in an interview Aug. 11. ``She obviously is interested in the job and has been preparing herself to win the nomination,'' he said.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Laura Litvan in Washington at llitvan@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 18, 2005 00:01 EDT
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