X-Ray Man,
You mention the "flat earnings expectations next quarter", which is of course in accord with Microsoft's public statements. With no sequential increase in Microsoft operating earnings from last quarter's $.80/share, Microsoft would then have earned approximately $2.96/shr in the last four quarters through September, 1997.
However, you also said: "Too many things mitigate against a stock trading P/E much higher than 50 in current market".
My calculator says that 50 times 2.96 equals 148.
Therefore, even assuming your P/E statement is true, it is in conflict with your statement, "I don't see MSFT breaking out of the 130 range before year end". I.e., a flat September quarter and a P/E equal to 50 would mean a stock price of 148. Of course, it could be even higher than that, since you were rejecting a P/E "much" higher than 50, so presumably a P/E a little higher than 50 would be alright.
Are these conflicting statements of yours an example of the depth of your insight?
In any event, I think that the readers of this thread do not need an X-ray to see through you. In fact, fearmongers are quite easy to spot, even with normal vision.
Best regards,
Arno
[P.S. my post regarding MSFT hitting 140 was part of a joking exchange between Sonki and me, as anyone who read the associated posts should have realized. I accord little significance to particular price "targets" or short-term movements, as I have indicated before.] |
