Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 171.08

-1.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (2545)	9/10/1997 5:27:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 10921

Sam, Re: generals fighting the last war(inflation), I tend to agree with Cary's view. 1. The street is fixated on any indication of inflation rising, especially imaginary ones... 2. Inflation, in USA and Canada at least, during this century, was a phenomenon of the 70s and 80s. During the other 8 decades, it was almost nonexistent. 3. Nominal interest rates (long bond) have averaged less than 3% this century. Today, we're significantly in excess of that. So, IMO, not only are interest rates low by recent historical standards, they're also too high by standards for the past 2 centuries. I believe the Fed will be forced to lower rates within the next year, not raise them. I further believe that the Fed Governors are too concerned with current asset values (equities), and this may be the key factor which has prevented rates from being lowered already. 4. The strength of the US $ exacerbates the effects of high rates. I further believe that the Fed clearly understands the impact of waiting too long to lower rates. Thus, I'm still quite bullish. Ian.

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