Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Perspective who wrote (35721)	8/22/2005 9:25:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

BC we agree about 1, 2, and 6. We disagree about 8 and 5. #3 is a wildcard but I tend to agree with you over the long haul. You will eventually be correct about 5 but I think the long haul there is much longer than I think you do. Copper falling by 45% and staying there for say 6 years or longer would not surprise me at all for example. Oil is unlikely to do so. As for real estate inflation, one has to look ahead not behind. The FED created this mess and will have to suffer the consequences of dropping interest rates to 1%. The next time we see that figure (and I think we may), it will not have the same stimulus. I do think we see lower lows in the 10-yr yield. I confidently predict 2.5%-3.0% Bonds are not bonds. There is an enormous bubble in junk bonds and no bubble at all in treasuries IMO. Mish

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