PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End?

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To: kryptonic6 who wrote (876)	8/23/2005 1:12:16 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) of 1183

Jesse, It appears that in some ways the effects are piling up at an accelerated pace but there's a broad range of systems yet to be affected. The effects seen so far are actually minimal but the volume is getting turned up. Gas prices started this run a few years ago but it didn't register until recently. The war in Iraq is about oil but that was always denied. The blackout over most of the Northeast US a few years ago was taken as an isolated event when it was actually intrinsically related to peak energy. Darfur is about oil but it's been framed as an internal problem. etc, etc. Now that gas prices are approaching $3, the few people who have been paying attention are seeing more pieces of the whole and focusing more on symptoms. Previously unattributed effects get added into the mix while new effects enter the stream. That contributes to the appearance of faster progression while at the same time there IS a bit of a faster progression...so it starts to look even faster yet. In other ways, some things haven't changed much at all. Most people are still woefully uninformed. There's a lack of capacity to "get it" so the effects will continue to pile up at an accelerated pace. I think there's going to be a relatively short span of time within the next 6 to 8 months when reality really makes itself painfully apparent and the uninformed are going to be stunned into getting it. A 60% increase over the present price of oil during a 3 weeks or less span is likely. A supply shortfall of 2 mil bpd in the 4th qtr. would probably require a drop in demand of 4 mil bpd in the 2nd and 3rd of 2006 to stabilize price back to where it is now after that jump. Then the 4th qtr 2006 ratchets it back up again. Long term chartists will then recognize the pattern as a "cup with handle" and the real "fun" begins.

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