API--the latest from INger via the YHOO boards
"As to Advanced Photonix (API). A high-volume frenzy followed 'initialized coverage' Monday evening, and it was inevitable (as noted) that 'tailwinds' would subside, so as to let it drift down and slow-up a bit. Thursday, it's come down to fill a breakaway gap that followed our write-up, which means there is no gap. We though this constructive.
It was evident that it took lots of high volume to move the shares, and that's probably because of the VC overhead talked about. We recall suggesting that one use limits and not chase any Amex listed stock, which invites the specialists to have a field day. Our preferred zone for accumulation was 2.75 to 3.25, and we are now there. After the dust settled we thought it would be easier to buy, as is now the case (into easing if you believe in the company and future technology). That's no assurance these low pullback areas hold, but we suspect so ahead of the forthcoming Annual Meeting in a week (Friday the 26th). We emphasized that THz (the newest of their technologies via the Picometrix acquisition) was likely a technology hopefully the rage around 2007, and maybe the buildup to that, would help the stock later this year and in 2006 also.
Ramping-up of activity and share price could be accelerated if Government or private funding mandates that; but we're not officially aware of that as yet; though numbers in the Quarterly suggest some early trials or efforts in such areas may be underway. Investors attending might indeed ask the company at the Annual Meeting about such issues, and share with the rest of us what may be gleaned from their remarks. Maybe a degree of persistence with questioning about these revolutionary areas will evoke a repeated series of responses that better delineate directions this promising company is taking, and provide a better feel as to the timelines involved in prototyping other or new products beyond the known work with NASA, Rice University, and so on.
In any event; we believe the stock is in a new uptrend; we believe the retrenching of the initial move does not mean any important top was put in (that seems laughable with the promise this firm holds, other than for trading moves, as isn't our preferred approach with such little 'gems'), but nothing is assured in the stock market, ever for sure. But the drop means that while one can argue it 'might' have gotten away, that it didn't. Sometimes the hare wins; sometimes the tortoise does. In this case win: both. How so? Because the rapid run-up proved the viability of volatility and a breakout, so the pullback has the opportunity to trace-out a higher-level support than previously as the calm investors waited for the pullback, after which we could see a stead rise that if all goes well eventually works its way back to the breakout highs, over a bit of time. Then, if the company continues to improve results (or introduces new agreements for the THz realm), the shares would be in position to pop-the-top, which would be a big deal potentially, from a technical standpoint, and probably a result of real progress.
We apologize if our selection not only brought-in buyers, but alerted bears to even an existence of this stock; nothing we can control (though they’d have to be insane to try shorting a $3 stock, so we suspect they’re really not bears, but ‘closet bulls’ trying to drive it down so they can accumulate stock as cheaply as possibly before it flies once more to higher levels). One of their arguments is plainly stupid; that a battle exists at all between API’s old and Pico’s management. We gather not whatsoever; Pico guys are the largest individual shareholders now, and some of the Californians actually are so enthused that they moved to Michigan to be with the Pico technology’s evolution. What that says is very positive, not negative, as we suspect the Annual Meeting will reflect later this week.
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