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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Alex Jung who wrote (1971)9/10/1997 6:58:00 PM
From: Allen Benn   of 10309
 
>Does this [the Sun Chorus/Jazz acquisition] have impact WINDs future?

I'll try to give you the short version of the answer, and perhaps we will get a longer description of all the underlying relationships later.

Sun wants to push Java anyway the can, and as fast as they can. After all, if Java is to help them survive the MSFT onslaught, and if it is to be a meaningful growth engine, it needs to get going big. Remember, Sun is a multi-billion company and the embedded systems tools business is a $300 million business. So, Sun is coming at Java with semiconductor hardware and Java-related software from every angle. This means Sun's approach to Java is not well-coordinated, with different organizational elements free to pursue Java mostly in any way they see fit.

There is an inherent conflict with Sun making JavaOS a super-powerful OS having real-time capabilities and all other necessary ordinary capabilities as well as being a Java Virtual Machine. The conflict is that they will turn off all the RTOS vendors if this were to be successful, and they would also, once again, turn off all the big computer players like IBM, HP, DEC and Motorola. Whenever they do this, Sun ends up losing. Of course the big winner always turns out to be Microsoft.

Because of the potential conflicts, JavaOS has been re-assigned to SunSoft, while all the embedded Java development remains in JavaSoft. JavaSoft is dedicated to working with the RTOS vendors, getting them to embrace Java, and extend their RTOSs to provide JVM services. WIND and MWAR are working with JavaSoft, combining capabilities and slicing up the royalty pie. INTS is working with a Java clone.

SunSoft bought Chorus, a private company, presumably because they need some OS technology to flesh out JavaOS.

In the final analysis, I see JavaOS running mostly on Sun's chips and winning some designs. It cannot knock out WIND, because it would not be permitted by any of the big players. On the other hand, there is now one less RTOS vendor, and I wonder what will become of the Chorus design wins, including a fairly recent one with Lucent?

It is not an accident that WIND and Microsoft are pure software companies. There is no other way to become universally appealing and ultimately dominate.

Allen
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