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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (21947)	8/25/2005 10:10:31 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) of 78986

Paul: I started WMT yesterday @45.85 without having read any of the posts on this thread...so we independently arrived at a similar view...It's favorably priced at this level. Both Morningstar & S&P peg fair value ~$58. Whether yesterday's dip to match 2003 lows was triggered by the shooting in Arizona or the jump in oil..I see neither condition as having a lasting impact. If oil keeps jumping, nobody will be able to shop anywhere but WMT. If oil drops, as I expect with the end of summer driving and hurricane season, given every experts assessment that non-speculative fundamental value is well below current levels, WMT's lower income customers will get some relief...just in time for Christmas. Looking at a long term chart, WMT plateaued 5 years, 92-97, before jumping 4-5x in the ensuing 3 years. It has now plateaued for nearly 7 years, so it could be due for another jump. Nevertheless, WMT is not a high expectation pick for me...I'm not looking for a triple in the nest 3 years or anything like that.

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