Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Nostradamus who wrote (5159)	9/10/1997 7:50:00 PM
From: tekgk	of 94695

>> Your profile says you had several years of experience were you a investment pro? No, but I have invested in various markets and have managed to make money during the past 25 years. A quick summary is long gold early->late 70's, long bonds early 80's, long stocks mid 80's , started various software companies 90's (some of which I have sold into this bloated market for more then I would ever pay for them). I got out of all of my long stock positions but one by mid June of this year. Since then I have been mostly in cash with a few shorts and puts. I am going to load up with lots more shorts later this week or early next week - I think that we are still susceptible to one last rally before we start the slide. I am hanging around on this thread to see what others think about one last rally. Shorting stocks and buying puts is relatively new to me but I don't see many other alternatives. Long stocks at these valuations - no way. Long Bonds - with the possibility of Japan unloading one day - no way. Long Gold - maybe but without inflation it won't move much - a little for insurance in case Japan does buy is all I am doing. I can't predict what Japan will do so I am left with two alternatives - cash and shorting the stock market. Historical patterns, fundamentals, economics and technical indicators all point to the same conclusion - a significant correction is just days away. The risk of going short seems small to me. How much more can the market go up when the average PE is in the mid 20's and new warnings of declining earnings are coming out every day? How much can the market go up when the worlds largest money flow has been interrupted (Japan - small tigers - USA)? How much can the market go up when personal bankruptcies are at an all time high? How much can the market go up when banks in asia that our banks have lent money to are crumbling? If you look at this thread and others like it, you can extend this list to about two dozen negatives. I think that you get my point. The only positive notes for the market are that inflation, interest rates, growth rates and unemployment rates are about the same as they were in 1929 - actually 1929 was a little stronger economically and the government was practically debt free - but close enough -:).

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