Ramblings - Bobby thought it was time to start it up again Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ramblings - Bobby thought it was time to start it up again

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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (16)	8/10/1996 3:14:00 PM
From: Dundee Maples	of 24

As you know, several areas around the world have been power kegs for the last few years - including Russia. BUT at every turn the news turn good or was translated as good. My subspecion(sp) is that we are about to see the reverse of that. Boris is in major trouble, he is either a defactor leader at best or dead and burried at worst. The in fighting will move to outright fighting. South Africa which has been basically ignored for the last few years also has an ailing leader with eslating internal problems. It is unlikely that they will be as blessed in th4e next two years as they have over the past two years. Iran has move forward on the stage and it is looking as though the oil patch is becomeing quite nervous about about it. Iraq has been negoiating for 6 months (almost completed) on its oil sales. For most of that time oil has been above$19 a barrel, more recently above 21. At the same time airline have started price wars. The margins have to be awlful. Tucking and other transfortation have to pass on these costs. Bosnia, Norther Ireland .... well I gues I am saying that the world picture has changed dramitically over the last 2 years. Like grain prices all that has to happen is that we don't have "perfect growing " conditions for things to turn ugly. The U.S. has also had incredible luck over the last few years. The Goldelocks economy may have seen its final days. The public now is being told that the rising prices that they experience everyday (eggs, bread, ...) are not important to the cpi ( but housing - which is a once or twice in a lifetime purchase is). Barons notes that the Pork bellies are in a major BULL market because the government has continue to report double counted supplies -- (surprise, surprise). The trade deficiet is growing and looks to be out of control, .... I find it hard to think that the trend hasn't changed. Bullish beliefs as recorded in the press and on tv are at incredibly high. No one wants hard assets, but instead wants to move to the U.S. dollar, or U.S. bonds, or U.S. equities. VEry dangerous times, and there is no fear. Sorry -- to manby thoughts. This I believe is the time for hard assets. Even with the obvious government market manipulations occuring (the latest refunding being the most obvious example) wiggle room is running out. Dundee (rambling along)

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