Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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From: redfish	8/26/2005 8:01:06 AM
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Going to be a lot stronger when it hits the GC: 0900 UTC 8/26/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #9 This is an independent product. Latest Doppler radar data indicates that Katrina still has hurricane force winds, at least aloft. While Katrina may have weakened just below hurricane intensity, to avoid playing musical classifications, I will keep the system as a 65KT hurricane. Latest satellite imagery indicates almost no change in organization after passing across the extreme southern part of the Florida Peninsula. The track the last 6 hours was significantly faster and left of the previous track. 0Z observations indicate that the ridge to the north was initialized by the models too small. The expanse of 5940 meter 500mb heights is about two to three times the size indicated by both the UKMET and GFS. This likely explains the unexpected acceleration to the SW. The model consensus has shifted to the left again; however, it may not be enough of a shift. I am making a slight left shift with this forecast, close to the CONU landfall location; however, I would not be the least bit surprised to see the track go farther left of what is indicated here. Conditions, appear favorable for intensification into a major hurricane and this is indicated in this forecast. 110KT is now the landfall intensity since Katrina has remained as well organized as it has while crossing Florida. It is possible that Katrina could become a category 4 hurricane, then weaken to a category 3 hurricane at landfall, as many hurricanes have recently done in the north Gulf as this region has a very low total heat content. Initial: (1800 UTC): 25.4N 81.3W 65KT 12 Hour: 25.4N 83.0W 70KT 24 Hour: 25.4N 84.5W 80KT 36 Hour: 25.8N 86.0W 90KT 48 Hour: 26.8N 86.8W 100KT 72 Hour: 30.5N 86.8W 110KT (at the coast) nwhhc.com

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