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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (36012)	8/26/2005 12:50:50 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (3) of 116555

Funny how much of the credit bubble was due to the Fed's attempt to ward off the nonexistent Y2K crisis. I sure used to take a lot of verbal abuse back in 1999 for making fun of Y2K on SI. Well, the Fed was right. There WAS a panic. It was the FED themselves that panicked, spooked by numeralogy. Now the numbers of the years march along inexorably: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007--and nothing about them suggests anything to panic about. So the Fed just marches along raising interest rates. As John Train says (p. 23 of "Preserving Capital and Making it Grow"), "In time, this process always breaks a bull market." Meanwhile, the country is starting to erupt in gas pump outrage, and a mild case of the famous 1970s "malaise" is developing. Shrub's approval ratings may soon sink below those of Lyndon Johnson at his lowest. And soon, Greenspan the Great will disestablish himself. O captain, my captain, the fearful storm will break. The ship's wheel will spin; the rudder will fall off. Congress will all run to the port side and start barfing up price controls and investigations.

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