The days of the for-profit client-side OS are numbered, be it Microsoft's, Apple's, or whosever.
We're headed for a world where you can plug in your smartcard and bring up your entire computing environment in any one of millions of information kiosks wherever you happen to be in the world as long as there's an internet connection available - A lot like ATM's but generalized to accomodate all but the most power-hungry computing tasks. Forget the OS...the browser will be the OS. And it may not even be Microsoft's. And if it is, it will be pretty close to gratis. Lots of forces at work (Chipmakers, Database vendors, Telco's, Independent--i.e. non microsoft-- software vendors, Network hardware mfg'ers, content providers) with lots to gain from making access to information as cheap and as convenient as possible. THese forces will strive to cut the low-value-added Gatescode that stands between an info consumer and the content or services he or she is after. As internet bandwidth grows (this is key), so will the complexity of computing tasks possible with minimal client-side OS services. With universal 10Mb bandwidth and well-written (compact, properly componentized) distributed object oriented apps you'll have very close to 100% of all computing tasks capable of executing on the server side, with all the richness, economy, ease of mass deployment, maintenance and use that this will bring. I can easily foresee the complete opening or commoditization of the client-side OS, because it adds very little value to internet users - almost pure overhead! |
